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Don’t Kill the Golden Goose!

Don’t Kill the Golden Goose!

By Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D.

In July 2022 Congress passed the sweeping Domestic Semiconductor Manufacturing Act[1] to ensure U.S. competitiveness and dominance in this critical technology. This need harkens back to the 1970’s when the same concern regarding U.S. competitiveness gave rise to the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. However, the response today is different – in 2022, Congress is heading towards the potential lapse of the SBIR/STTR programs due to its inaction!

What is so unnerving is that Congress apparently doesn’t know the role that the SBIR/STTR programs have already played in strengthening the domestic semiconductor industry – through a small, SBIR-funded company called Arkansas Power Electronics International (APEI) which was acquired by Cree (NASDAQ: Cree) in 2015 and today is known as Wolfspeed.  The future of the semiconductor industry lies with wide band gap materials – SiC and GaN and Wolfspeed is the world leader.

SiC Wafer Market Share

2% 4% 5% 13% 14% 62%
  • Wolfspeed has long-term stable market share of >60%
  • Wolfspeed is recognized as a technology leader in the industry
  • Wolfspeed is leading supplier to world's largest power semiconductor IDMs
  • Wolfspeed continues to add materials capacity to maintain market leadership
  • Wolfspeed
  • II-VI
  • SiCrystal
  • SK Siltron
  • TankeBlue
  • Others

Source: Wolfspeed, pg 80.

At the time APEI was acquired in 2015, the Executive Vice President of Cree stated,

“Adding this expert team of innovators and portfolio of patents will enable us to further disrupt and expand the market,” said Frank Plastina, executive vice president, Cree Power and RF. “Extending our research and development capabilities with APEI, a leader in wide bandgap power R&D, will help us accelerate delivery of a full spectrum of SiC power modules to meet customer requirements for performance and cost.”[2]

Two days ago Wolfspeed announced a ”$5 Billion investment in Chatham County, largest in NC History”[3] to build a new semiconductor plant.

To put the role of the SBIR program in perspective here are a few data points. Arkansas Power Electronics International was founded in 1997 and between 2002 and 2015 received 59 Phase I and Phase II awards which included: 29 awards from the Department of Defense; 13 awards from the Department of Energy, 14 awards from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, one award from the Department of Transportation and one award from the National Science Foundation. This level of support for revolutionary technologies by the SBIR/STTR programs is necessary. To simply assume that providing multiple awards to a small business is a waste of tax-payer money or that this practice prevents other companies from winning SBIR/STTR awards is simply false.  

This is one of the many SBIR/STTR successes that goes unheralded as federal agencies lack sufficient funding and tools to track the success of SBIR/STTR awardees over an extended timeframe.  Since 1982, many successful technologies funded though the SBIR/STTR programs have enhanced U.S. competitiveness, created jobs, and commercialized new products. Congress needs to take appropriate measures immediately to keep the SBIR/STTR programs in place. To let this program lapse will hinder U.S. competitiveness – which is the reason the SBIR program was initially created [4] and should be allowed to flourish!

[1] H.R. 6359 – Investing in Domestic Semiconductor Manufacturing Act

[2] Wolfspeed. “Cree Acquires APEI (Arkansas Power Electronics International, Inc.”  July 09, 2015.

[3] WRAL News. Wolfspeed announces $5 billion investment in Chatham County, largest in NC history”, September 9, 2022.

[4]  Public Law 97-219 – July 22, 1982.

Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D. is the President and Founder of Dawnbreaker, a woman-owned small business located in Rochester, NY which has provided commercialization assistance to SBIR/STTR awardees since 1990.

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Why SBIR/STTR should be reauthorized NOW

Why SBIR/STTR should be reauthorized NOW

By Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D.

Small, advanced technology firms have suffered enough! What they don’t need now is a death blow from the federal government. During COVID these firms weathered delays in their research due to supply chain issues and illness in their staff. Today, many contend with the loss of employees to large enterprises that view firms funded by the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs as ripe for harvesting qualified, experienced staff. Now is NOT the time to orchestrate the demise of these programs and put at risk the survival of the companies nurtured by participating agencies. Delays in reauthorization of the SBIR/STTR programs and the uncertainty regarding funding will severely damage this vital sector of the U.S. economy.

Let me address some misinformation that is being bantered around.

Some maintain that potential, new entrants to the SBIR/STTR programs fail to secure awards because these are gobbled up first by frequent award winners. Indeed, the threshold for winning an SBIR/STTR award is intentionally high. After all, funding for these programs comes from each participating agency’s extramural R&D budget. Solicitation topics vary widely and are directed at each agency’s mission. Awards are made with taxpayer money and those responsible for making award decisions critically evaluate each proposals’ goodness of fit with the solicitation topic, as well as the ability of the proposed team to conduct the research. Because the threshold is high, new entrants to these programs often need support in preparing their first SBIR/STTR applications. Agencies such as the Department of Energy and the National Institutes of Health have therefore instituted a Phase 0 program to assist new applicants in proposal preparation. The results indicate that such programs have a positive impact on assisting new applicants to win SBIR/STTR awards.

Then there’s the “elephant in the room.” Is money being wasted by giving multiple SBIR/STTR awards to frequent award winners? All different types of companies apply for SBIR/STTR awards. There are start-ups with one or two employees. There are small businesses that have between 10-15 employees who have just heard about these programs for the first time. There are companies that have been around since the 1980’s which have applied to the SBIR/STTR program since that time and have less than 500 employees (threshold for small business). All of these companies win SBIR/STTR awards. However, the infrastructure of each of these firms differs greatly. A start-up with one or two employees is not going to have a laboratory, or the facilities to engage in low-rate production.  True start-ups don’t have differentiated departments and lack considerable business expertise. There are a myriad government programs, many funded through the Small Business Administration designed to assist such companies to develop their infrastructure. The SBIR/STTR programs are for R&D and although it will pay some of a company’s overhead, the small business has to find its own way to secure funding for business growth from other sources. In response some companies seek equity investment, while others pursue other government contracting vehicles and do whatever they can to grow their business engine.

Some of the agencies that participate in the SBIR/STTR programs are actual customers for the technologies that the SBIR/STTR awardees develop. They need the small businesses to be capable of delivering what they are contracted to develop. This leads contracting agencies such as the Department of Defense to focus on the ability of the company to deliver the technology/ solution/product that it is funding in an expeditious manner. By comparison, granting agencies such as the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health and the United States Department of Agriculture are NOT customers for the R&D that they fund. The mission and the criticality of what is being produced are different in contracting and granting agencies. The SBIR/STTR programs are dynamic and appropriately vary in implementation at the agency level.

Commercialization success comes in all shapes and sizes – some are small successes, while others are large and have tremendous impact. It is short-sighted of those who sit in judgment of the SBIR/STTR programs to expect and mention only large commercialization successes. This is after all “seed funding” – the earliest stage of funding, often avoided by venture capital, and a niche which the SBIR/STTR programs have uniquely filled. All commercialization successes should be tracked, celebrated, and publicized. However, there is often insufficient funding for the SBIR/STTR program offices to employ the staff to make this a priority. The successes that truly exist, large and small are under-counted and need to be tracked over an extended period.

Procurement by the federal government of SBIR/STTR funded technologies through the Phase III award mechanism remains a gap. The FY20 NDAA Sec 880 added language to the Small Business Act (15 USC 638) which indicates that Senior Procurement Executives, Procurement Center Representatives (PCR) and Directors of the Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) should, “consult with appropriate personnel from the relevant Federal agency to assist SBCs participating in a SBIR or STTR program particularly in Phase III…” However, how to do that remains unclear.

It is important to the U.S. economy that support continues, without interruption for advanced technology firms providing needed R&D solutions through the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer programs. It has taken decades to grow and mature these programs. As we emerge from the struggles which everyone had endured with COVID, this fragile and valuable program could be destroyed with a single blow. Re-authorize the SBIR/STTR programs by whatever means possible. Small business innovation depends on it!

Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D. is the President and Founder of Dawnbreaker, a woman-owned small business located in Rochester, NY which has provided commercialization assistance to SBIR/STTR awardees since 1990.

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Market Snapshot: Space Mining

It’s not difficult to imagine miners panning for gold during the 1800s, but what exactly would mining in space look like? That is one area that NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) is looking to develop.

Missions like the Lunar Prospector, Chandrayaan-1, Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) have taught us that ice, referred to as “water ice” exists on the poles of the Moon, and it is present in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), where temperatures are low enough to keep water in a solid form despite the lack of atmospheric pressure. However, unsurprisingly, there are a few challenges that come with mining on the moon. For example, desorption and sublimation can occur at temperatures as low as 150 K, and the inverse challenge exists with water collection – unless the water vapor is under pressure, extremely cold temperatures will be necessary to capture it. To address this, NASA is seeking methods to acquire lunar water ice from PSRs and, oxygen from lunar water. While a lunar water prospecting mission is needed to fully understand the utilization potential of water on the lunar surface, NASA recognizes the need to make progress on the technology needed to extract oxygen from dry lunar regolith – a blanket of dust, broken rocks and other superficial deposits layered on the rock surface of the moon.

Mining in space isn’t just interesting to read about, the market potential for this area is growing. MarketsandMarkets reports that the space mining market was valued at $0.49 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach $2.84 billion by 2025, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.6%. The US is expected to grow at the highest CAGR due to the upcoming space exploration and mining missions by NASA and private players in the U.S., such as Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources, increasing investments by private players in asteroid mining companies, and growing number of government initiatives to boost space exploration activities. The U.S. government updated commercial space legislation with the passage of the Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship (SPACE) Act of 2015 (also known as Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act) in November 2015, which explicitly allows US citizens to engage in commercial exploration and exploitation of space resources, such as water and minerals. Additionally, the U.S. Space Force (USSF), the newest branch of the Armed Forces, was established in December 2019 with enactment of the Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act.

In addition to lunar water ice from the PSRs, data from NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft uncovered new evidence that the Moon may be rich in metals such as iron and titanium. The hypothesis is that large meteors hitting the Moon have excavated these metal oxides from beneath the Moon’s surface – suggesting concentrations of the metal underground. Previous research and geological surveys have shown than the Moon contains three crucial resources: water, helium-3, and rare earth metals. While enabling technologies are still under investigation, one technique that has recently generated interest is “ablative arc mining,” which is part of a project led by Amelia Greig, an assistant professor of mechanical engineering at the Aerospace Center at the University of Texas in El Paso. Dr. Greig’s project was recently chosen as part of the Phase I Fellows program for NASA’s Institute for Advanced Concept (NIAC). Other innovative ideas are likely to emerge during Lunabotics, NASA Kennedy Space Center’s robotic mining competition, which is one of NASA’s Artemis Student Challenges – when registration closed in September, more than 50 teams had registered to compete in the 2021 challenge. 

Today, major players and space agencies in the space mining market include Deep Space Industries (US); Planetary Resources (US); Moon Express (US); ispace (Japan); Asteroid Mining Corporation (UK); Shackleton Energy Company (SEC, US); Kleos Space (Luxembourg); TransAstra (US); OffWorld (US); SpaceFab.US (US); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, US); European Space Agency (ESA, France); Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA, Japan); China National Space Administration (CNSA, China); and Russian Federal Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS, Russia).

Looking ahead, Earth & Space 2021: Engineering for Extreme Environments will be held VIRTUALLY April 19-23, 2021 and will include a symposium on Exploration and Utilization of Extra-Terrestrial Bodies. The Space Resources Roundtable (SRR) and the Planetary & Terrestrial Mining Sciences Symposium will hold their 11th joint meeting virtually the week of June 7-11, 2021.

 

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Market Snapshot: On Farm Natural Resources and Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is a popular topic these days with new users and application areas maturing in all sectors. As agriculture begins to incorporate renewable energy into everyday operations, innovative technologies and initiatives can help promote energy efficiency and conservation. The use of renewable energy in agriculture holds the promise of reducing operation costs, increasing energy efficiency, and increasing profits while utilizing natural resources. Given the availability of resources in this sector – wind, solar, geothermal energy, and other feedstocks – the potential to create scalable solutions that serve multiple and individual farms is increasing.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the number of U.S. farms fell sharply until the early 1970s after peaking at 6.8 million farms in 1935. However, while the number of U.S. farms has continued to decline since the 1970s, the rate of decline has slowed. In the most recent USDA survey there were 2.02 million U.S. farms in 2019 utilizing 897 million acres of land. The average farm size was 444 acres, which is slightly greater than the 440 acres recorded in the early 1970s. In 2019, family farms, commonly defined as a farm where the majority of the business is owned by the operator and individuals related to the operator, accounted for nearly 98 percent of U.S. farms, and small family farms accounted for 90 percent of all U.S. farms. By contrast, large-scale family farms, make up about 3% of farms but 44 percent of the value of production.

So, what does the number of farms mean for energy use? The EPA reports that agriculture accounts for 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., and that doesn’t include land and water usage. This sector both uses and produces energy, which makes energy an expense as well as a source of potential income. On-farm renewable energy generation is seen as offering the opportunity to diversify farm business and offset emissions from other farm activities while reducing energy costs. To realize these goals, farmers are tapping into the wide range of options for renewable energy generation. According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture, the number of farms with renewable energy producing systems increased from 57,299 in 2012 to 133,176 in 2017.

While not every option will be suitable for every farm, the following list provides a brief overview of some of these sources.

  • Bioenergy: Biomass energy can be made up of sugars and oils from plants and used to make fuel for vehicles (Biofuel or Biodiesel). Additionally, the burning of biomass for heat or electricity is simply called Biopower. Both of these offer the potential for generation and use in the agricultural sector and beyond.
  • Geothermal: Geothermal energy can be expensive to set-up, but reports indicate that the long-term benefit makes this cost worthwhile to farmers. In this case, farm buildings could use geothermal heat pumps to exchange air temperature and ground temperature year round, keeping buildings cool in summer and warm in winter.
  • Solar: Agricultural applications of solar energy can take many forms, some of which have been used for years. For example, the sun’s energy can be used for passive heating of greenhouses or as solar thermal heating for hot water systems. With photovoltaics (PV) solar energy can be used to produce electricity. Farm-produced solar energy can be sold as a commodity or used to power the farm itself.
  • Wind: With wind energy, turbines produce electricity from wind, and can provide a large portion of the average power needed by a farm. However the turbines must be located in high wind areas and typically require at least one acre of land to produce enough energy.
  • Hydropower: Hydropower is also dependent upon the farm’s location – for this form of renewable energy the force of fast moving, falling, or flowing water is used to produce or capture energy. In agriculture, on-farm hydropower generation can be used to power the farm directly, or it can be connected to the electrical grid to offset electricity consumption.

The USDA offers a variety of links and resources for this topic and provides information on work being done in this area by other agencies as well as by individual states. A listing of agriculture conferences scheduled for 2021 is available here.

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Market Snapshot: Biofuels

While it may seem like anything can be turned into renewable energy these days, biomass is unique in that it can be converted directly into liquid fuels, called biofuels to help meet transportation fuel needs. The two most common types of biofuels in use today are ethanol and biodiesel, these are also known as “drop-in” fuels, meaning they can serve as petroleum substitutes in existing refineries, tanks, pipelines, pumps, vehicles, and smaller engines.

According to BCC Research, the global liquid biofuels market should reach $153.8 billion by 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% for the forecast period of 2019 to 2024. The following sections break this broader market down into the markets for ethanol and biodiesel.

Ethanol is an alcohol most commonly made by fermenting any biomass high in carbohydrates through a process similar to beer brewing, but it can also be produced by a process called gasification, which uses high temperatures and a low-oxygen environment to convert biomass into synthesis gas, a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. The resulting synthesis gas (syngas) can then be chemically converted into ethanol and other fuels. Typically, ethanol is used as a blending agent with gasoline to increase octane and cut down carbon monoxide and other smog-causing emissions. MarketsandMarkets reports that the global bioethanol market is projected to grow from $33.7 billion in 2020 to $64.8 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 14.0%, from 2020 to 2025. Demand for bioethanol is driven by the mandatory use of bioethanol fuel blends in many countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the fuel efficiency of the vehicles.

In terms of the different fuel blends, the E10 segment is projected to be the largest market for bioethanol given that European countries and other regions have mandated the use of E10 fuel blends in vehicles to lower the GHGs emission rate. Additionally, a small percentage of bioethanol can be mixed with the pure gasoline to prepare bioethanol blends, which burn more efficiently and produce zero carbon emission. As a result, the use of bioethanol fuel blends is mandated in many countries around the world. Based on these factors, transportation is projected to be the largest end-use segment of the bioethanol market in terms of value and volume.

Biodiesel, the other biofuel, is made by combining alcohol with vegetable oil, animal fat, or recycled cooking grease, and can be used as an additive to reduce vehicle emissions or in its pure form as a renewable alternative fuel for diesel engines. Although the pace of research interest had slowed, research into the production of liquid transportation fuels from microscopic algae, or microalgae, is on the upswing at NREL. According to BCC Research, the global market for biodiesel reached $35.1 billion in 2019 and should reach $49.2 billion by 2024, at a CAGR of 7.0% for the period of 2019-2024.

Oil crops such as rapeseed, palm, or soybean are the largest source of biodiesel, which makes it a sustainable alternative compared to conventional diesel. Furthermore, biodiesel meets both the biomass-based diesel and overall advanced biofuel requirement of the Renewable Fuel Standard – it also meets specifications created by the American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM) for legal diesel motor fuel (ASTM D975) and the definition for biodiesel itself (ASTM D6751). Pure biodiesel is referred as B100 (100% biodiesel) but is rarely used given that existing diesel engines may not be suitable for pure biodiesel. Therefore, just as with ethanol, blends are used that have a certain proportion of biodiesel mixed with fossil diesel. Most of the current diesel engines are capable of handling biodiesel blended fuels – the most common blends currently in use are B5 (up to 5% biodiesel) and B20 (6% to 20% biodiesel).

In February of 2020 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2020 and Biomass-Based Diesel Volume for 2021 and Other Changes which set renewable fuel percentage standards every year. The close ties between the agriculture industry, transportation, and others is also an important area for growth, in May of 2020 the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture intends to make available up to $100 million in competitive grants for activities designed to expand the availability and sale of renewable fuels under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP). Looking for more? The Europe & North America Advanced Biofuels Summit 2021 will be held virtually in April 2021.

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Market Snapshot: Emerging Applications for Low Noise Amplifiers (LNAs)

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As the Department of Defense (DoD), SpaceX and commercial vendors look to increase connectivity and expand available bandwidth, innovators are exploring new ways to fulfill this need. One such approach is through the use of E-band. Recently, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission established that portions of E-band are available in the U.S. for high density, high data rate wireless services that will enable point-to-point communications, SATCOM, and 5G services. Furthermore, the International Telecommunication Union has permitted several bands for radio and satellite operations with SpaceX applying to use portions of E-band in their Starlink Gen2 satellite constellation. The use of E-band offers the potential for many new opportunities, including new high-resolution imaging and surveillance sensors for DoD systems and commercial applications such as autonomous vehicles.

So, what is E-band, and how can it be leveraged for commercial use? In brief, the waveguide E-band is in the EHF range of the radio spectrum (60 GHz to 90 GHz) which corresponds to the recommended frequency band of operation of WR12 waveguides. These frequencies are equivalent to wave lengths between 5 mm and 3.333 mm. In October 2003, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) ruled that spectrum at 71 to 76 GHz, 81 to 86 GHz and 92 to 95 GHz would be available for high-density, fixed wireless services in the United States. In June 2020, SpaceX applied for use of the E-Band in the Starlink Gen2 constellation. Generation 2 Starlink Gen2 satellites will include 71 – 79 GHz and 81 – 86 GHz operational frequencies. To operate in this range, low noise amplifiers (LNAs) are used to amplify a low strength signal to a significantly high power level while minimizing noise signals to improve the output. Low noise amplifiers are typically made using the following materials: silicon-based LNA, gallium arsenide based LNA and silicon-germanium based LNA.

Low noise amplifiers are most commonly used for radar and communication systems in satellites, aircrafts, and ships, but are also finding opportunities in wireless infrastructure, wireless LAN interfaces, cellular telephone, GPS, LTE, set-top boxes and biomedical devices. The market for LNAs is expected to grow in healthcare, aerospace & defense, consumer electronics, automotive and other applications through the increasing adoption of low noise amplifiers in consumer electronics as well as the healthcare industry. With the United States, South Korea and Japan launching 5G networks, the market potential for low noise amplifiers, which are extensively used in mm-wave phase array technology used in 5G wireless cellular technology, is growing. IndustryARC reports that the global low noise amplifier (LNA) market is estimated to surpass $4.25bn by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 15.23% during the forecast period 2018-2024. This growth is being driven by the increasing design complexity in consumer electronics and the rapid adoption of LTE technology.

Analysts report that some of the key players in the global low-frequency amplifiers market are NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the Netherlands), Analog Devices, Inc. (U.S.), Infineon Technologies AG (Germany), L3 Narda-MITEQ (U.S.), Qorvo, Inc. (U.S.), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (U.S.), ON Semiconductor Corp. (U.S.), Panasonic Corp. (Japan), Texas Instruments, Inc. (U.S.), Teledyne Microwave Solutions (U.S.), Atmel Corporation (U.S.), Microchip Technology Inc. (U.S.), Toshiba Corporation (Japan), Diodes Incorporated (U.S.) and more. These players are said to make up a highly fragmented market that looks to mergers & acquisitions, innovation, and brand reinforcement among the leading players to maintain and grow their position in the market. This potential and growth is illustrated in the May 2020 SpaceX Application For Approval For Orbital Deployment And Operating Authority For The SpaceX GEN2 NGSO Satellite System before the Federal Communications Commission which discusses the use of E-band in emerging communications applications.

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Market Snapshot: Respiratory Virus Detection

The need for rapid, non-invasive, and accurate testing for viral respiratory infections has perhaps never felt greater. Presently, researchers, public health officials, and others are looking into the plausibility and potential for a mobile, handheld, or badge-type detection system as a diagnostic tool to screen breath for the presence of communicable respiratory viral infections, particularly those with pandemic potential. These tools could be used as a personal health monitor or at check points in office buildings, arenas, airports, subway systems, and borders. Fortunately, advances in the development and adoption of point-of-care testing (POCT) solutions may provide solutions to this challenge by quickly identify infectious diseases and providing actionable information to improve disease management.

While COVID-19 has opened up the market for point of care testing of respiratory infections and driven competition in this space, the market includes the need for testing of approximately 20 different respiratory pathogens. Multiplexed point-of-care testing (xPOCT) refers to the simultaneous on-site detection of different analytes from a single specimen and is reportedly creating market confusion while also lowering costs and improving care. Given the pervasive nature of common respiratory infections, as well as the pandemic potential of others such as COVID-19, the potential market is enormous. Respiratory diseases are already the largest infectious disease category and could multiply in size providing a growth opportunity for diagnostic companies. 

According to a report from ResearchDive, the respiratory disease testing industry in 2020 was valued at $10.6 billion before the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 8.4% during the forecast period of 2020—2026. However, the CAGR of the global industry is now expected to be 9.2% throughout the estimated timeframe, 2020—2027 based on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with the market size projected to cross $20.1 billion by 2027. While COVID-19 diagnostics is dominating the headlines, the total respiratory disease test market consists of diagnosis, severity assessment, treatment monitoring, and evaluation of prognosis in conditions such as influenza, asthma, tuberculosis, pneumoconioses, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), obliterative bronchiolitis, mesothelioma, and silicosis. 

There are two main types of POCT used today, immunoassay-based tests and molecular tests. The immunoassay tests detect analytes extracted from a potentially infected patient, and then assessed for microbial antigens and host antibodies. Molecular POCT are polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based tests which have a higher sensitivity and specificity compared to immunoassay tests or rapid antigen detection tests (RADT).  MarketsandMarkets reports that the global point of care molecular diagnostics market was valued at $632.5 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $1,440.2 million in 2023, at a CAGR of 14.7%. However, the molecular diagnostics segment only makes up 20% of the infectious disease POCT market in the United States. Despite this small percentage, North America is expected to account for the largest share of the global POC molecular diagnostics market. This is attributed to the growing prevalence of infectious diseases, increasing number of CLIA product approvals, and rising government initiatives – however, Asia Pacific is expected to grow at highest CAGR.

Frost & Sullivan provides extensive coverage on these markets and reports that near-patient testing may provide more accurate results than when patient samples have to be transported to laboratories, mistakes carried out during sample handling prior to testing can lead to a 32-75% margin of error, which can cost anywhere from $200 to $2000 per incident. Furthermore, the molecular POC tests have clinically proven better sensitivity and specificity (>95% on an average). The following are identified as major growth areas in this market:

  • New multiplexing ecosystems able to test for multiple infectious diseases
  • Smartphone-based POCT
  • Biochip Array Technology (BAT)
  • Lab-in-a-Drop
  • Host Biomarkers
  • Paper-based Assays (PBA)
  • Portable Molecular Diagnostics (MDx)

While POCT is an established market, technology gaps exist with these test methods, according to a May 2020 research paper which reports that traditional approaches based on pathogen DNA/RNA and protein detection using, respectively, PCR‐based or protein‐based methods in traditional laboratory instruments are not useful when looking to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections. Additionally, today a Respiratory Pathogens Panel (RP panel) is only performed using one of two semi-invasive methods, nasopharyngeal swab or nasal aspirate. However, researchers are working to develop less invasive, rapid test methods that include breath analysis. Recently, a pilot study out of Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia  analyzed the breath composition of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) and discovered six volatile organic compounds more common in infected patients which helps researchers to develop a framework upon which to build a future ‘breathalyzer’ test for SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. Looking to the future, a triad of approaches (human, animal, and in vitro cell culture studies) has allowed researchers to identify candidate breath biomarkers that can be carried forward into larger studies.

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Market Snapshot: Supply Chain Security

We all remember saying, “Where is all of the toilet paper?!” With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains – something we tend to take for granted – began gaining increased attention. Supply chains effect everything from the delivery of materials from a supplier to the manufacturer all the way through to its eventual delivery to the end user. In addition to these noteworthy challenges, the need to provide enhanced security in supply chain transactions is garnering increasing attention. Enter – blockchain – a method that will provide increased security and minimize cyberattacks on the supply chain.

MarketsandMarkets reports that post-COVID-19, the global logistics & supply chain industry market size is expected to grow at a Y-O-Y rate of 17.6% from 2020 to 2021, to reach $3,215 billion in 2021, up from $2,734 billion in 2020. This growth is primarily driven by the increasing supply of essential commodities, the creation of supply chain stabilization task force to fight COVID-19, and growing demand and distribution of personal protective equipment. With this overall growth comes an Increasing need for supply chain transparency and a rising demand for enhanced security of supply chain transactions. According to MarketsandMarkets, the global blockchain supply chain market size was $82.1 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $3,314.6 million by 2023, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 87.0% during the forecast period.

The blockchain supply chain market ecosystem is made up of notable vendors, such as IBM (US), Microsoft (US), Oracle (US), SAP SE (Germany), AWS (US), Huawei (China), Bitfury (Netherlands), Auxesis Group (India), TIBCO Software (US), BTL Group (Canada), Applied Blockchain (UK), Guardtime (Estonia), Nodalblock (Spain), Peer Ledger (Canada), Blockverify (UK), TransChain (France), RecordsKeeper (Spain), Datex Corporation (US), Ownest (France), Omnichain (US), Traceparency (France), Digital Treasury Corporation (China), Chainvine (UK), VeChain (China), Algorythmix (India), and OpenXcell (US). These players tend to favor partnerships and new product launches as the key growth strategies to offer feature-rich blockchain technology solutions to their customers and further penetrate regions with unmet needs. Other stakeholders of the blockchain supply chain market include cryptocurrency vendors, research organizations, network and system integrators, blockchain service providers, distributed ledger technology solution providers, and technology providers.

Today, big data has become a key element in building business development strategies, and while the logistics and supply chain industry continue to grow, so does the amount of data generated. This increase in data coupled with the persistent requirement for a unified cost-saving solution is expected to drive demand for advanced analytics solutions across industry verticals. Additionally, as companies look to identify opportunities for cost-cutting and resource-savings, supply chain optimization grows in importance. Therefore, access to secure, accurate supply chain analytics provides companies with valuable insights into the root causes of losses and successes. The global supply chain analytics market size is expected to grow from $3.5 billion in 2020 to $8.8 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 19.8% during the forecast period.

Enhancing supply chain security across government and industry is a key pillar of the National Counterintelligence Strategy of the United States 2020-2022, and in October 2020 the National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) released a new document, Supply Chain Risk Management: Reducing Threats to Key U.S. Supply Chains, to help private sector and U.S. Government stakeholders mitigate risks to America’s critical supply chains.  NIST also hosted virtual workshop in October 2020 building upon its prior guidance documents, Blockchain Technology, and Securing Manufacturing Industrial Control Systems.